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How Many Favourites Win Horse Races In The UK?

The answer to the question “How Many Favourites Win Horse Races In The UK?” is something everyone one should know who bets on horses as it is probably the best variable for targetting potential winners. So what is the answer?

The figures below clearly show that of all the horse racing favourites over the last 5 years just under 32% won, this includes turf, NH and AW. That is pretty decent, but then when you look at the losses you would have had with a normal bookmaker to £1 stakes your eyes may pop out!!!

Runners Wins SR P/L Betfair ROI Betfair P/L to SP Lay P/L BF
62079 19672 31.69 -2003.34 -3.23 -4850.76 -1996.08

Even losses with Betfair look pretty daunting, although nowhere near as bad as with a bookmaker. Losses if you laid all the favourites are huge as well.

This leads us to two other questions, and also one way of easily targetting more winners:
How Many Favourites Win Handicaps In The UK?
How Many Favourites Win Non-Handicaps In The UK?

Type Runners Wins SR P/L Betfair P/L to SP Lay P/L BF
HANDICAP 35051 9000 25.68 -1184.32 -3122.59 -1270.7
NON HANDICAP 27028 10672 39.48 -818.72 -1728.17 -725.09

Now we see something not a lot of people in High Street bookmakers are aware of. The fact that out of all the Favourites that run in non-handicap races, nearly 40% win!!

The picture gets a bit mudddied when I tell you that both sets have a negative Betfair ROI of 3%. So in reality although the SR’s of both are far apart, they actually both produce the same losses, and this is because non-handicap favourites start at lower prices.

Let us concentrate soley on the non-handicap winners from here on, and we will split the stats into turf,NH and AW and see if anything stands out.

Race Type Runners Wins SR P/L Betfair P/L to SP Lay P/L BF
A/W 4754 1905 40.07 -111.35 -297.93 -159.89
Chase 3574 1498 41.91 -103.28 -212.9 -91.93
Hurdle 6652 2764 41.55 -206.54 -382.1 -159.25
NHF 1178 392 33.28 -115.69 -161.65 44.9
Turf 9531 3626 38.04 -249.91 -582.95 -309.31

Well the one thing that stands out here is that you need to be extremely careful when getting involved with National Hunt Flat races (NHF). The other 4 categories are fine, but as chase and hurdle races shower a higher edge we will dig a little deeper into individual race types. The reason for additional edge with jump racing Favourites is that the form is more reliable with most horses running year after year.

Type Runners Wins SR P/L Betfair ROI Betfair P/L to SP ROI to SP Lay P/L BF Lay ROI BF
Amateur 38 13 34.21 0.22 0.59 -1.72 -4.53 -2.8 -7.37
Auction 8 6 75 5.08 63.55 4.71 58.88 -5.56 -69.46
Chase 3569 1496 41.92 -105.22 -2.95 -214.02 -6 -89.58 -2.51
Claiming 155 52 33.55 -21.35 -13.77 -23.58 -15.21 12.51 8.07
Classified 15 7 46.67 6.98 46.52 5.71 38.09 -8.17 -54.44
Conditions 95 41 43.16 3.85 4.05 0.23 0.24 -9.29 -9.78
EBF 20 8 40 -3.78 -18.91 -3.61 -18.06 2.75 13.75
Fillies 36 14 38.89 -2.79 -7.75 -3.98 -11.06 0.68 1.89
Grade 1 254 106 41.73 -1.57 -0.62 -10.25 -4.04 -13.03 -5.13
Grade 2 412 156 37.86 -62.22 -15.1 -71.23 -17.29 41.18 9.99
Grade 3 113 47 41.59 -2.35 -2.08 -5.91 -5.23 -4.09 -3.62
Hunters 308 127 41.23 0.5 0.16 -9.68 -3.14 -18.49 -6
Hurdle 6651 2764 41.56 -205.54 -3.09 -381.1 -5.73 -160.2 -2.41
Juvenile 529 212 40.08 -57.92 -10.95 -69.76 -13.19 29.56 5.59
Listed 89 38 42.7 -7.06 -7.93 -9.25 -10.4 2.5 2.81
Maiden 2380 912 38.32 -66.54 -2.8 -135.52 -5.69 -72.31 -3.04
Mares 761 281 36.93 -84.45 -11.1 -103.81 -13.64 42.4 5.57
Novice 4426 1965 44.4 -148.03 -3.34 -256.78 -5.8 -83.01 -1.88
Rated 4 3 75 4.15 103.73 4 100 -4.47 -111.75
Selling 440 167 37.95 22.87 5.2 6.57 1.49 -50.04

-11.37

In order to make use of the above table you need to target those races that are either showing a profit already, and remember these are based on favourites (including joint), non-handicap races over jumps. You also want to pay close attention to any showing a small loss with less than -2% ROI, as a bit of targetting on your part should easily turn them into profits.

Using the information here you should have no problem putting together a profitable horse racing system.

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